Write-up in PDF Model:

• SEIR model with Vaccination
• Model Parameters: Contact Rates β, Recovery period (1/γ = 5 days), Incubation period (1/α = 5.8 days).

Method

• Past infection, vaccination, affected by immunity waning makes a certain fraction of the population susceptible to the new variant which is taken as a parameter: 30%, 60%,100%.


• Contact Rates:
  • Estimated by the comparison of contact rates for South Africa during 15 May-15 June 2021 and 01-12 December 2021.
  • Assumed contact rate: Omicron = 1.41 x Delta for 100%. Similar calibration for others.


• Calibration:
  • On day 0, each state is seeded with 20 cases.
  • Once simulated, a suitable delay is added to align to the increasing trend during 27 December 2021 - 02 January 2022.

Based on our earlier work: Strategies to Mitigate COVID-19 Resurgence Assuming Immunity Waning: A Study for Karnataka, India Aniruddha Adiga, Siva Athreya, Bryan Lewis, Madhav V. Marathe, Nihesh Rathod, Rajesh Sundaresan, Samarth Swarup, Srinivasan Venkatramanan and Sarath Yasodharan

• Prediction 100% Susceptible CSV
• Prediction 60% Susceptible CSV
• Prediction 30% Susceptible CSV
• Reported Cases CSV (Source:www.incovid19.org)

• Prediction 2nd January, 2022:
  • Report in PDF
  • Data in CSV.
• Prediction 10th January, 2022:
  • Performance Plots
  • Data in CSV.
• Prediction 17th January, 2022:
  • Data in CSV.
• Prediction 24th January, 2022:
  • Performance Plots
  • Data in CSV.
• Prediction 31st January, 2022:
  • Performance Plots
  • Data in CSV.